Ukraine as a political entity would have ceased to exist, returning to the status that it held under the Russian imperialism of the 19th century ― which seems to be Putin's model. In due time, they would probably simply disappear as Ukraine was incorporated into Russia as a collection of new federal districts. There would now be perhaps 20 million Ukrainians scattered across Europe and the West, dwarfing all other recent global refugee crises combined.Īside from a handful of rogue countries, no one would have recognized the puppet authorities in Kyiv. Meanwhile, the flow of refugees fleeing the country would have been an order of magnitude larger than it was. At best, he would be leading a government in exile from Warsaw or somewhere else. In this scenario, Ukraine's duly elected president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, most likely would have been murdered by Russian special forces or incarcerated after a swift trial. Through quick, decisive action by special forces ― and perhaps with the help of collaborators on the ground ― Russia would have gained control of Kyiv within a day or two, proceeded to install a puppet government, and held victory parades. What if Russian forces had not bungled the invasion? Where would we be now if the Ukrainian resistance had collapsed, or if the West had responded not with unity but with confusion and disarray? Still, it is worth considering the counterfactual. In fact, no reasonable person can deny that the war has been a complete debacle for Russia. STOCKHOLM ― Russian President Vladimir Putin has not met any of the strategic objectives that he alluded to when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago.
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